Tourism in France: Heatwaves, Foreign Tourists, and Purchasing Power

TourMaG – Weather was at the center of headlines, with the heatwaves in particular. What role did it play in French decision-making?

Didier Arino : The heatwave actually had a boosting effect, contrary to what one might assume. It notably stimulated last-minute bookings, from people who hadn’t planned to depart and decided to go later. This concerns especially those with fewer constraints related to school holidays or peak periods, and who could no longer stand staying in cities.

This last-minute clientele was beneficial. It fed the coast, of course, but it also helped recover some of the delays seen in destinations like the Massif Central and accelerated mountain bookings.

We thus observed a good spread of flows across different space types, though there were clear losers: dry, waterless destinations that suffered during the heatwaves. Rural France, hot arid countryside, the results are more worrisome.

Destinations where cycling or nature activities in plains are popular took a hit, particularly in July. Canoe rental, houseboats, the itinerant cycling sector, and outdoor visiting sites all suffered substantially.

The heatwave and tighter purchasing power also impacted dining: roughly 60% of restaurateurs reported a downturn. This translated into stores that didn’t perform well and activity providers that faced difficulties.

TourMaG – Paris was particularly hit by the heatwave this summer; did this affect attendance?

Didier Arino : Regarding urban tourism, Paris is a special case because the capital relies heavily on international clientele. Paris fared relatively well.

TourMaG – Did vacationers flee the South as some say because of this heatwave?

Didier Arino : On the Côte d’Azur, Nice fared very well, with a strong rise in foreign clientele. Marseille also performed very well in terms of bookings. When I hear that people fled the South, I react! No, they did not flee the South; they fled the heatwave.

In the South, there are also areas like the Pyrenees. To my knowledge, the Pyrenees are in the South, and they recorded very good bookings compared to previous years and to the average.

Of course, the coastal stations of the Pyrénées-Orientales and especially the interior territories were impacted. Occitanie was affected, as was Hérault. But some resorts held up well, such as La Grande-Motte, for example.

Two large regions with substantial weight are lagging: Nouvelle-Aquitaine and Occitanie. And when Normandy rises by 5%, that isn’t enough to offset the declines recorded in Nouvelle-Aquitaine and Occitanie, which weigh more heavily. I don’t yet know what the final figures will look like.

TourMaG – If we look at accommodation categories, is the overall picture uniform?

Didier Arino : In terms of overnight stays, they are down in the rental sector. Why? Because these are customers who ended up traveling less. The drop in overnight stays stems from people whose purchasing power is constrained: when people travel shorter durations and there are fewer travelers, it rarely translates into more nights.

For camping, it will be roughly stable, especially thanks to foreign visitors. This assessment isn’t final yet since September remains, but we should be moving toward a fairly stable trend, perhaps with fewer French and more foreigners. As for consumption, campsites saw higher demand for bare pitches rather than mobil homes.

Hotels, on the other hand, performed fairly well, boosted by growing foreign clientele, but also because a portion of French people who did not travel abroad chose hotels. Those with greater purchasing power are more likely to stay in hotels.

Finally, the situation is more varied for some holiday villages and certain tourist residences. It depends on the establishment, but we aren’t seeing a dramatic surge either.

To summarize, tourist accommodation will have a decent summer, even better than feared: the number of overnight stays is expected to fall around -2% in July-August, which isn’t dramatic. We’ve managed to limit the damage.

With a slightly smaller audience, it could indeed have been a catastrophe. Without the support of foreign clientele, the situation would have been very bad. In the end, frankly, we are at the high end of what we had anticipated in our simulations. We are at the maximum of what could be imagined, even if it is not thriving for sure.

TourMaG – And what about the mountains, which seem to have stood out, with travelers seeking coolness…

Didier Arino : Since the Covid period, mountains are on the rise again, and that’s a good thing. You can see it by visiting mountain resorts. But it depends on which mountains we’re talking about. Mountains with lakes, places that offer more freshness, have indeed performed well. It has been a good season for the mountains, which also benefited from an uptick in foreign attendance.

Regarding the quest for freshness, it’s important to recall that summer vacationers primarily seek sun, warmth—not extreme heat—and water.

When it rains, vacationers don’t think: “Fantastic, it’s cool and it’s raining!” That’s a construct of some journalists!

TourMaG – Is traveler behavior evolving?

Didier Arino : The sociology of tourism inevitably reshapes things. We are seeing fewer families and more seniors. About half of vacationers today are over 50. Retirees, for instance, keep their grandchildren and can travel at times other than July and August.

The peak season concerns only the 15 days of August when companies are closed. But in July, vacationers know they can easily find space and pay less. This year, due to purchasing power constraints, there was a kind of cat-and-mouse game, a yo-yo effect: I book, I cancel, I find a good deal, or I fear bad weather…