TourMaG – We’re in early June, and indicators from travel operators are not in the green. Where do we stand on the latest figures?
Didier Arino: First, let’s review the annual figures. For 2026, 40.2 million French people say they have gone on vacation or intend to go, which is 2 million fewer than in 2024.
For the summer, we moved from 800,000 canceling trips abroad to 1.5 million. Of the 10 million who had considered traveling abroad, that represents nearly 16%, and while that number may seem large, it is quoted as 16% in quotation marks.
When I say they are giving up on traveling abroad, we should also view this trend with caution. Some have renounced the foreign destination they initially envisaged, notably in Asia, but they remain uncertain. They say they are abandoning their stay as planned, but that does not mean they will not choose, at the last moment, a closer destination in Europe.
Didier Arino: First, let’s review the annual figures. For 2026, 40.2 million French people say they have gone on vacation or intend to go, which is 2 million fewer than in 2024.
For the summer, we moved from 800,000 canceling trips abroad to 1.5 million. Of the 10 million who had considered traveling abroad, that represents nearly 16%, and while that number may seem large, it is quoted as 16% in quotation marks.
When I say they are giving up on traveling abroad, we should also view this trend with caution. Some have renounced the foreign destination they initially envisaged, notably in Asia, but they remain uncertain. They say they are abandoning their stay as planned, but that does not mean they will not choose, at the last moment, a closer destination in Europe.
The trend of “less far, cheaper, shorter”
TourMaG – Do these figures show up in bookings?
Didier Arino: Summer bookings remain subdued compared to previous years across most categories of accommodation, with the exception of camping, whose activity remains steady but not rising.
The trend of “ less far, cheaper, shorter ” is being confirmed. Vacationers are increasingly favouring destinations located about three hours from home, typically near major tourist catchment areas.
Accordingly, Lyon residents are leaning more toward the mountains, Ardèche, or the Occitan coast, Parisians toward the Norman and Breton coasts, while people in the North prefer the coast of Pas-de-Calais. This dynamic could penalize farther destinations, especially in the south of France, with the exception of areas like the Côte d’Azur that attract international clients.
TourMaG – Industry professionals are now waiting for last-minute sales. Will they trigger?
Didier Arino: For now, operators are indeed waiting for it to trigger… In my view, vacationers know there is still availability nearly everywhere and will therefore wait until the very last moment. If you’re leaving the following week, you might wait to know the weather forecast. This is, indeed, what we observed during the long weekends in May.
On the weekend when we had the heatwave, operators were at full capacity. There is also a psychological aspect at play: fuel under two euros per liter. For a single trip, this can amount to around twenty euros. In itself, it does not fundamentally alter the situation, but psychologically, the impact is enormous for consumers.
For the summer and last-minute bookings, the question remains whether they will manage to fully offset the delay observed so far. But with fewer people taking shorter stays… I don’t see how we could do better…
Didier Arino: Summer bookings remain subdued compared to previous years across most categories of accommodation, with the exception of camping, whose activity remains steady but not rising.
The trend of “ less far, cheaper, shorter ” is being confirmed. Vacationers are increasingly favouring destinations located about three hours from home, typically near major tourist catchment areas.
Accordingly, Lyon residents are leaning more toward the mountains, Ardèche, or the Occitan coast, Parisians toward the Norman and Breton coasts, while people in the North prefer the coast of Pas-de-Calais. This dynamic could penalize farther destinations, especially in the south of France, with the exception of areas like the Côte d’Azur that attract international clients.
TourMaG – Industry professionals are now waiting for last-minute sales. Will they trigger?
Didier Arino: For now, operators are indeed waiting for it to trigger… In my view, vacationers know there is still availability nearly everywhere and will therefore wait until the very last moment. If you’re leaving the following week, you might wait to know the weather forecast. This is, indeed, what we observed during the long weekends in May.
On the weekend when we had the heatwave, operators were at full capacity. There is also a psychological aspect at play: fuel under two euros per liter. For a single trip, this can amount to around twenty euros. In itself, it does not fundamentally alter the situation, but psychologically, the impact is enormous for consumers.
For the summer and last-minute bookings, the question remains whether they will manage to fully offset the delay observed so far. But with fewer people taking shorter stays… I don’t see how we could do better…
There will be good deals to be had!
TourMaG – The vacation budget is following the same downward curve…
Didier Arino: Yes, the vacation budget is down by 150 euros. There will be a problem of consumption within tourist spaces: places of visits, paid activities, shops, restaurants… We see this in the trade-offs; vacationers will be very cautious.
TourMaG – Operators have launched flexible offers; could this boost demand?
Didier Arino: What was very poor to start with was airline communication. They first announced the implementation of fuel surcharges. In consumers’ minds, this added to the worries tied to the context and the risks of kerosene shortages. Naturally, this discourages booking. In the end, this communication, combined with rising tariffs, ended up destroying demand.
Now, tariffs are falling… There will inevitably be good deals to be had! Operators are right to promote because price sensitivity is decisive.
This year, price is proving to be more than ever the number one criterion. According to our survey, 71% of vacationers consider it decisive in their choice. We have moved away from a value-for-money logic or the search for experience and pleasure. Today, the dominant criterion is price above all.
Didier Arino: Yes, the vacation budget is down by 150 euros. There will be a problem of consumption within tourist spaces: places of visits, paid activities, shops, restaurants… We see this in the trade-offs; vacationers will be very cautious.
TourMaG – Operators have launched flexible offers; could this boost demand?
Didier Arino: What was very poor to start with was airline communication. They first announced the implementation of fuel surcharges. In consumers’ minds, this added to the worries tied to the context and the risks of kerosene shortages. Naturally, this discourages booking. In the end, this communication, combined with rising tariffs, ended up destroying demand.
Now, tariffs are falling… There will inevitably be good deals to be had! Operators are right to promote because price sensitivity is decisive.
This year, price is proving to be more than ever the number one criterion. According to our survey, 71% of vacationers consider it decisive in their choice. We have moved away from a value-for-money logic or the search for experience and pleasure. Today, the dominant criterion is price above all.
For the French, holidays remain essential but they must be affordable
TourMaG – All observers agree that the sector is resilient and that the desire to travel remains intact… Do you share this view given what we’ve just discussed?
Didier Arino: Holidays remain deeply rooted in the French way of life. Despite budget constraints, they continue to allocate an important share to travel. 55% of them say they are making sacrifices in other spending categories to be able to go, including food, home equipment, clothing, or even automobiles.
The reality, however, is that vacations are financed with what is left after all bills are paid. If every month you spend more on fuel, heating, or food, you inevitably have less money available to travel.
A CSP+ couple will not change their vacation for an extra 50 euros. But for a peri-urban family that has to drive long distances daily, pay for daycare, and absorb daily price increases, those 50 euros can make the difference. They are the ones who will adjust their vacation plans, or even rethink them completely.
This does not mean vacations are less important for these households. However, they may arbitrate differently: replacing a paid stay with free or low-cost activities, shortening the stay, or opting for two days at a leisure park to please the children. When 40% of vacationers modify their plans in this way, it inevitably affects the entire tourism ecosystem.
For the French, vacations remain essential but they must be affordable.
Vacationers tend to downgrade. The most upscale mobile homes are hard to fill, while there has never been as many bookings for bare pitches in campsites. In furnished rentals, it is mainly the mid-range and budget segments that are thriving. As for holiday villages, most are experiencing delayed bookings.
Contrary to what some sector players claim, the situation is not as favorable as they imply. At the same time, there is a rising prominence of short stays. At Center Parcs, for example, three- or four-day stays are expanding. The French continue to travel, but for shorter durations. The obvious consequence: the number of nights and long stays is likely to fall this summer, even if the total number of stays may not drop.
Didier Arino: Holidays remain deeply rooted in the French way of life. Despite budget constraints, they continue to allocate an important share to travel. 55% of them say they are making sacrifices in other spending categories to be able to go, including food, home equipment, clothing, or even automobiles.
The reality, however, is that vacations are financed with what is left after all bills are paid. If every month you spend more on fuel, heating, or food, you inevitably have less money available to travel.
A CSP+ couple will not change their vacation for an extra 50 euros. But for a peri-urban family that has to drive long distances daily, pay for daycare, and absorb daily price increases, those 50 euros can make the difference. They are the ones who will adjust their vacation plans, or even rethink them completely.
This does not mean vacations are less important for these households. However, they may arbitrate differently: replacing a paid stay with free or low-cost activities, shortening the stay, or opting for two days at a leisure park to please the children. When 40% of vacationers modify their plans in this way, it inevitably affects the entire tourism ecosystem.
For the French, vacations remain essential but they must be affordable.
Vacationers tend to downgrade. The most upscale mobile homes are hard to fill, while there has never been as many bookings for bare pitches in campsites. In furnished rentals, it is mainly the mid-range and budget segments that are thriving. As for holiday villages, most are experiencing delayed bookings.
Contrary to what some sector players claim, the situation is not as favorable as they imply. At the same time, there is a rising prominence of short stays. At Center Parcs, for example, three- or four-day stays are expanding. The French continue to travel, but for shorter durations. The obvious consequence: the number of nights and long stays is likely to fall this summer, even if the total number of stays may not drop.
TourMaG – Luxury travel specialists also feel a chill. Prudence seems to be the watchword for business leaders, who are also constrained by the economic context.
Didier Arino: It’s a reality… Some scale back, others think that with France’s deficit they will be taxed more and more, and then there is fear of the future… in short, this creates a kind of attrition.
In the business world, particularly among those directly exposed to the market, worry is real. Added to that are all sectors tied to real estate, which suffer from slower transactions and, consequently, a drop in activity. Retail is also heavily affected, with increasing difficulties and business failures.
There remain, within the partner networks, doctors, people who work in finance, tech and AI… Even accountants or lawyers are cautious. We have entered a recessionary cycle intensified by fear of tomorrow. Sometimes it’s irrational, but one thing is certain, the post-COVID euphoria is over.
And this could last, because 2027 is an election year with presidential elections.
Didier Arino: It’s a reality… Some scale back, others think that with France’s deficit they will be taxed more and more, and then there is fear of the future… in short, this creates a kind of attrition.
In the business world, particularly among those directly exposed to the market, worry is real. Added to that are all sectors tied to real estate, which suffer from slower transactions and, consequently, a drop in activity. Retail is also heavily affected, with increasing difficulties and business failures.
There remain, within the partner networks, doctors, people who work in finance, tech and AI… Even accountants or lawyers are cautious. We have entered a recessionary cycle intensified by fear of tomorrow. Sometimes it’s irrational, but one thing is certain, the post-COVID euphoria is over.
And this could last, because 2027 is an election year with presidential elections.
