When will the emotional rollercoaster stop?
After the bright prospects at the start of the year, disaster struck! The American and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 last put a halt to activity. A very sluggish spring followed, marked by fears of a kerosene shortage, compounded by a stagnant travel market hampered by the geopolitical backdrop and fare prices that keep climbing…
The professionals soldier on against the odds and muddle through the summer, with a season marked by last-minute sales. Then activity brightened again in August and early September.
A breath of fresh air. We want to believe. It will restart, despite a recovery that feels fragile, the professionals want to believe and move forward. This was at least the predominant sentiment at IFTM. The aisles were busy, the momentum seemed positive once more.
Alas, behind the smiles, other concerns emerged, including the surge in kerosene prices that raises fears of difficult days for the airlines.
After the bright prospects at the start of the year, disaster struck! The American and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 last put a halt to activity. A very sluggish spring followed, marked by fears of a kerosene shortage, compounded by a stagnant travel market hampered by the geopolitical backdrop and fare prices that keep climbing…
The professionals soldier on against the odds and muddle through the summer, with a season marked by last-minute sales. Then activity brightened again in August and early September.
A breath of fresh air. We want to believe. It will restart, despite a recovery that feels fragile, the professionals want to believe and move forward. This was at least the predominant sentiment at IFTM. The aisles were busy, the momentum seemed positive once more.
Alas, behind the smiles, other concerns emerged, including the surge in kerosene prices that raises fears of difficult days for the airlines.
Fuel could account for between 40 and 45% of operating costs for these carriers, versus 25% last year. That could jeopardize the business models of carriers, especially the low-cost ones.
If some airlines have fuel hedges, there will still be far from fifty solutions to cope with the rise if one excludes the slashbacks in flight schedules, cancellations, or further price increases.
Volotea illustrates the situation well. The Spanish low-cost carrier trimmed its winter program, announcing numerous route suspensions. But as one train can hide another, it is the tour operators and agencies, but also the customers who pay the price.
Re-protection, searching for a Plan B: travel operators know how to do it. But at what cost? Mobilizing teams, advancing incidental costs, taking charge, even though the plane ticket has been paid long ago… As Patrice Caradec said in our pages: “I am worried about Volotea, but I am also worried about air transport.” That is why the industry is condemned to pilotage by sight.
Which company to book, which routes will be adjusted? Are there risks of bankruptcy? Whatever happens, we know that operators will have to foot the bill…
If some airlines have fuel hedges, there will still be far from fifty solutions to cope with the rise if one excludes the slashbacks in flight schedules, cancellations, or further price increases.
Volotea illustrates the situation well. The Spanish low-cost carrier trimmed its winter program, announcing numerous route suspensions. But as one train can hide another, it is the tour operators and agencies, but also the customers who pay the price.
Re-protection, searching for a Plan B: travel operators know how to do it. But at what cost? Mobilizing teams, advancing incidental costs, taking charge, even though the plane ticket has been paid long ago… As Patrice Caradec said in our pages: “I am worried about Volotea, but I am also worried about air transport.” That is why the industry is condemned to pilotage by sight.
Which company to book, which routes will be adjusted? Are there risks of bankruptcy? Whatever happens, we know that operators will have to foot the bill…
That is troubling, especially since professionals had bet on the rise of low cost carriers to push dynamic packaging and other “flex” offers.
In the face of this business model under severe strain, one wonders whether the good old charters should make a comeback… A broad debate that we won’t open here!
And then there is the question of prices. If airlines pass part of the fuel increase onto ticket prices, it creates a domino effect, with the entire chain at risk of paying the price.
Indeed, purchasing power remains a central concern, and the last-minute sales seen this summer testify to it: people compare, wait, monitor prices… and book at the last moment.
With an average diesel price at the pump of €2.23 per liter in Europe (a record!), and petrol following the same curve, we can easily understand that going on vacation may not be the main concern of our dear fellow citizens.
Not to mention that this is not the only expense category that is rising… When the barrel climbs, everything climbs!
Vigilance remains essential. After the greetings in the aisles at IFTM, returning to the office feels somewhat dull knowing that other issues loom, with the 2027 Finance Bill and the presidential elections… Not to mention potential strikes and more structural transformations: the sector’s attractiveness or even artificial intelligence.
Come on, let’s keep our spirits up!
In the face of this business model under severe strain, one wonders whether the good old charters should make a comeback… A broad debate that we won’t open here!
And then there is the question of prices. If airlines pass part of the fuel increase onto ticket prices, it creates a domino effect, with the entire chain at risk of paying the price.
Indeed, purchasing power remains a central concern, and the last-minute sales seen this summer testify to it: people compare, wait, monitor prices… and book at the last moment.
With an average diesel price at the pump of €2.23 per liter in Europe (a record!), and petrol following the same curve, we can easily understand that going on vacation may not be the main concern of our dear fellow citizens.
Not to mention that this is not the only expense category that is rising… When the barrel climbs, everything climbs!
Vigilance remains essential. After the greetings in the aisles at IFTM, returning to the office feels somewhat dull knowing that other issues loom, with the 2027 Finance Bill and the presidential elections… Not to mention potential strikes and more structural transformations: the sector’s attractiveness or even artificial intelligence.
Come on, let’s keep our spirits up!
