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Economic Situation

Pourquoi la baisse du pétrole pourrait changer la donne sur le marché des devises - Depositphotos.com, Auteur yellow_man

CroisiEurope

May will be remembered for an historic move in oil. Brent fell by roughly 19% over the month, dipping back to around $92, marking its worst monthly performance since March 2020.

The engine behind this retreat is diplomatic: Washington and Tehran reportedly reached a preliminary agreement to extend their 60-day ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil and LNG passes. Tehran would commit to clearing the passage of mines within 30 days. An important caveat: Trump has not yet endorsed the terms, and JD Vance tempered the prevailing optimism. Nothing has been signed.

This pullback changes the inflation equation. Energy had been fueling the price spiral since the outbreak of the conflict at the end of February. If the price of crude stabilizes at a lower level for a sustained period, inflationary pressures should mechanically ease in the coming months.

And yet, the ECB is preparing to tighten on June 11, with a market-implied 90% probability. A 25 basis-point rise would lift the deposit rate from 2.00% to 2.25%, the first tightening since 2023. Why tighten when the energy shock is receding? Because the ECB does not react to yesterday’s oil, but to today’s inflation.

In April, harmonized inflation rose to 3.0% across the euro area, and May flash estimates show a persistent acceleration in France, Italy and Spain. The figures are in, and some governors would have argued for a hike as early as April.

And the euro, meanwhile, remains stuck below 1.17, caught between diplomatic optimism and Frankfurt’s monetary resolve.

Exchange Rates: The Technical View

When oil plunges, safe-haven currencies give up their gains first. The Swiss franc is the clearest example: EUR/CHF has risen to around 0.9105 after peaking near 0.90 during the crisis. The flight-to-safety pressure is easing, and the SNB, with its policy rate at zero, allows it to stand by.

EUR/USD remains stuck around 1.1654, near a six-week low. As long as the Fed keeps its range at 3.50%-3.75% with no hint of easing, the dollar maintains a yield advantage that outstrips every other factor. Technically, the 1.1550-1.1600 area acts as support: below it, the path to 1.1500 opens.

Above this, the 100-day moving average near 1.1720 caps any rebound. EUR/GBP hovers around 0.8650, with no significant underlying movement. EUR/CAD sits near 1.5980: the Canadian dollar is naturally exposed to oil, and a persistently lower oil price would weaken it, thereby mechanically supporting the pair. Finally, EUR/JPY around 185.5 is the issue to watch this week.

The Governor of the Bank of Japan is due to speak soon, and any signal about the continuation of Japan’s monetary normalization could wake a yen that has notably lagged.

	WEEKLY SUPPORTS		WEEKLY RESISTANCES
	S2	S1	R1	R2
EUR/USD	1.1500	1.1580	1.1720	1.1800
EUR/GBP	0.8560	0.8610	0.8700	0.8750
EUR/CHF	0.9020	0.9060	0.9150	0.9200
EUR/CAD	1.5850	1.5920	1.6050	1.6130
EUR/JPY	183.50	184.50	186.50	188.00

The supports and resistances shown below indicate, respectively, the low and high points within which prices are expected to move over the course of the week.

The information presented in this publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to engage in any investment activity.

Mondial Change is a French financial institution, founded in 2015, specializing in the management of international payments and foreign exchange risk.

Mondial Change also supports many players in the tourism sector: travel agencies, group organizers, tour operators, inbound operators…

www.mondialchange.com

Contact: [email protected]

CroisiEurope

Fuel Guarantee: Transparency and Commitment

First differentiating element, and probably the most impactful today in the customer journey: the guarantee of no fuel-related price increase after booking on the maritime portion. In a context where energy fluctuations remain on everyone’s minds, Costa chooses transparency and commitment. Specifically, for Mediterranean departures this summer, the price displayed at the time of booking is final for departures through September 30, 2026. No surcharge will be added as departure approaches. For travel agents, this promise radically changes the commercial dialogue. It immediately removes a frequent objection and builds a climate of trust. The customer knows where they are going, and, most importantly, how much it will cost, with no surprises. In a competitive market, this price stability becomes a strong competitive advantage capable of tipping the decision.

Flexibility: Free Changes Before Departure

Alongside this price control, there is a direct answer to another key traveler need: flexibility. Costa thus offers free changes up to 31 days before departure. A flexibility that fits perfectly with current expectations, especially among hesitant clients or those planning ahead. Booking no longer means rigid commitment, but securing an opportunity while keeping the ability to adjust the plan. For sellers, this approach greatly facilitates conversion: it helps encourage immediate decision-making by reducing the sense of risk.

“Today, the true value when choosing a vacation lies in the ability to plan it with complete serenity. Travelers who book in advance seek both simple solutions and the freedom to adapt their plans if circumstances evolve. This is what our ‘Modify without fees’ offer makes possible,” says Aurélie SOULAT, France Commercial Director of Costa Croisières. “This flexibility is part of a broader approach of transparency and reassurance, with notably our guarantee of a locked-in price, with no fuel-related increases after booking. In a context where budget control is essential, it is fundamental to be able to offer our clients a clear view of the final price of their holidays, with no surprises.”

But beyond price and flexibility, Costa also provides a concrete answer to a very operational constraint: access to the departure port. On this point, the cruise line enriches its offering with simple and attractive solutions, notably around the Costa Pacifica. For certain departures from La Seyne-sur-Mer, a free train option is offered from Paris and Lyon. An initiative particularly relevant to broaden the catchment area, attract an urban clientele or meet the expectations of travelers who want to avoid driving. This ease of transportation fits into a seamless customer journey mindset, where every step of the trip is designed to be simple.

Train gratuit au départ de Paris & Lyon © Costa Croisières

Enhanced Accessibility: Train, Car, and Alternatives to Flying

Simultaneously, departures from Marseille also enjoy excellent accessibility. The port is easily reachable by train, with direct connections from many French cities, and also by car, providing great scheduling freedom. This plurality of options lets agents tailor their messaging to the client profiles, highlighting the most relevant solution according to their travel habits.

Ultimately, Costa builds a coherent and especially effective proposition: a secured price, flexible booking, and simplified access. Three elements that directly meet market expectations and give travel agents tangible, immediately actionable arguments at the point of sale. In a context where reassurance has become a key conversion factor, this approach not only facilitates the sale but also positions cruising as a clear, calm, and controlled choice.

A Clear, Readable, and Accessible Pricing Policy

Beyond the fuel guarantee, Costa also strengthens its appeal with a powerful promotional offer: -50% off the second passenger until June 8, 2026.

This promotion helps reposition cruising as a product that is both competitive and transparent. The client perceives real value: a fair and controlled price.

By combining a guaranteed price on the cruise portion, an immediate discount, and flexibility, Costa offers a pricing narrative that is clear, reassuring, and engaging. A strategy that perfectly meets current market expectations and makes the act of purchasing easier than ever.

Why Falling Oil Prices Could Change the Game in the Currency Markets [ABO]