Exchange Rates: Euro Under Pressure Against the Dollar as Central Banks Pause


Economic Situation

Taux de change : l’euro sous pression face au dollar, les banques centrales temporisent - Depositphotos.com, Auteur pedro2009

PONANT


The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) and the European Central Bank (the ECB) are expected to move on the same dates: nothing at the end of October, followed by a rise in their interest rates in December.

Since this scenario is already priced in, it will no longer differentiate the two currencies before January, unless a surprise, and it could come from the September U.S. inflation, published on Wednesday. In the background, energy prices remain the real risk.

American expectations moved quickly. Barely had the U.S. rate been set in the 3.75% to 4.00% range, investors priced in, by nearly 75% on September 29, a further increase on October 28. They now believe it with less than 20% probability. John Williams, one of the Fed’s leaders, ruled out any rush, and the country created only 29,000 jobs in September. The move is deferred, not canceled: by the December meeting, the probability of a hike is judged likely at 84%.

The ECB should follow the same path. Reuters polled 73 economists on October 8: 70 see it keeping its rate at 2.50% on October 29, and 64 expect it to raise in December. Again, the scenario is known, thus already priced in. Only a revision would move the markets: some capital would then flow toward the currency with the fastest rising yields.

The euro has fallen for five weeks in a row, the latest week a soft one, and it was worth 1.1210 dollars this morning. The risk, in our view, remains oil. Europe buys it abroad and settles in dollars, while the United States sells more than it consumes: a price spike weighs only on the former.

Or Riyadh was attacked this weekend, and tankers were targeted near the Strait of Hormuz, which keeps the pressure. Winter budgets are therefore built on fuel that remains expensive and on dollar-denominated services that will not become cheap again.



Exchange Rates: The Technical View

Bearish bets against the euro remained buoyant last week : short positions held by speculators weighed 99,300 contracts as of Tuesday, October 6, up 36,000 over seven days.

A U.S. inflation figure weaker than expected would force them to buy back euros. In our view, such purchases would push the European currency toward 1.13 dollars quickly, while a fall toward 1.11 would occur more slowly.

The U.S., Canadian and Japanese debt markets are closed this Monday: there are therefore few buyers and sellers. Oil, however, reacted to the news. Brent opened at $105.48, before retreating toward $103.90 when the United States hinted that Russian diesel could circulate. Currencies remained almost unmoved: 1.5977 Canadian dollars per euro this morning, 177.27 yen, the pound at 0.8463 and the Swiss franc at 0.9299. These levels will only be taken for granted after Tuesday’s session.

Thailand, meanwhile, is quietly firming ahead of winter. The baht has strengthened for a month: it took 38.31 bahts to buy one euro on September 9, versus 37.57 at the ECB reference rate on October 9, i.e., 1.9% less. A transaction priced by a Bangkok or Phuket intermediary at the back-to-school rate thus sees its margin shrink.


WEEKLY SUPPORTS WEEKLY RESISTANCES
S2 S1 R1 R2
EUR/USD 1.0986 1.1098 1.1322 1.1434
EUR/GBP 0.8294 0.8378 0.8548 0.8632
EUR/CHF 0.9113 0.9206 0.9392 0.9485
EUR/CAD 1.5657 1.5817 1.6137 1.6297
EUR/JPY 173.72 175.50 179.04 180.82


The supports and resistances shown below indicate respectively the lower and upper points within which prices are expected to move during the week.



The information presented in this publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy, and should in no case be used as a basis or be considered as an incentive to engage in any investment.


Mondial Change is a French financial institution, founded in 2015, specializing in the management of international payments and exchange rate risk.

Mondial Change supports many players in tourism, travel agencies, group organizers, tour operators, incoming operators…

www.mondialchange.com

Contact : [email protected]


Orient Voyages: Tours Across Central Asia


Samarkand Gur Emir © Orient Voyages

Climats du Monde


For over 30 years, our agency has guided visitors in discovering Uzbekistan and, more broadly, Central Asia. Throughout the years, we have developed an in-depth knowledge of destinations, tourist infrastructures, local traditions, and the cultural specificities of this region still relatively unknown to the international public.

For the 2027 season, Orient Voyages offers a full range of circuits across Uzbekistan as well as itineraries allowing you to explore several Central Asian countries during a single trip.

From the majestic Samarkand to the desert expanses of the Kyzylkum, passing by the legendary cities of Khiva and Bukhara, each itinerary is an invitation to travel, to discover, and to marvel.

But beyond the exceptional monuments, we also want to unveil another dimension of the country: colorful markets, villages, traditional crafts, gastronomy, desert landscapes, and encounters with the local populations.


The GIR Series Uzbekistan

The GIR series in Uzbekistan is one of our flagship products and has been increasingly successful on the Francophone market for more than five years. These 2-person guaranteed tours are specially designed for travelers who wish to discover all the beauties of Uzbekistan while forming a genuine connection with the local population. Departures are guaranteed with a minimum of two participants, which allows you to book with complete confidence, without worrying about hotel reservations, transfers, guides, or excursions: everything is arranged for you. The itineraries take you into the heart of UNESCO World Heritage sites, while leaving you free time to stroll, photograph, and soak up the unique atmosphere of each city. With the GIR series, you travel light-heartedly, fully enjoying every moment, with no logistical constraints.

GIR 10 days “Jewels of Uzbekistan” is a classic and comprehensive circuit that will introduce you to the four emblematic cities of the country: Khiva, the oasis-city of a thousand legends; Bukhara, the holy city with turquoise domes; Samarkand, the pearl of the Orient and the country’s capital – Tashkent, a modern and vibrant city.

For the 2027 season we are pleased to offer as an option a one-day excursion to Tajikistan’s seven lakes, a true natural jewel for lovers of mountainous scenery and easy hiking. This extension will allow you to discover a wild and pristine facet of Central Asia, complementing the architectural treasures of the Silk Road.

It is an ideal program for a first-time visit to Uzbekistan at a budget-friendly price.

The second GIR program, 11 days “Deserts and Domes,” offers a slightly longer stay, combining the essential visits to historic sites with an unforgettable immersion in the Kyzylkum Desert. During this extraordinary stage, you will have the opportunity to spend a night under a yurt, in a traditional camp among the dunes. This unique experience, both exotic and adventurous, will leave you with an unforgettable memory: the desert’s silence, the starry sky, and a meal shared around the fire.

This circuit is ideal for those who want to combine cultural discovery with gentle adventure, while enjoying a balanced pace and opportunities to relax.

The 2027 departures are already on sale, with a guaranteed departure from two participants.


Program “Discovery of the 5 Stans”

For adventurers and history enthusiasts of Central Asia, we have crafted an exclusive 22-day journey across five countries in the region: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan. This program, titled “The 5 Stans,” is a true odyssey into the heart of Central Asia, ideal for travelers with three weeks of vacation who wish to experience the full richness and diversity of this captivating region in a single trip.

It is an ideal program for those who have three weeks to spare and want to explore the entire region in one voyage.

From the endless steppes of Kazakhstan to the celestial mountains of Kyrgyzstan, from Uzbekistan’s architectural treasures to Turkmenistan’s lunar landscapes, and including Tajikistan’s turquoise lakes, every stop promises powerful emotions and unforgettable encounters.

The program can be undertaken from May to mid-October, for both individuals and groups. Four of the five countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan) are visa-free for citizens of many countries. For Turkmenistan, it is recommended to allow 40 days to prepare the visa, to ensure a smooth entry. Do not hesitate to contact us for more information and to start planning your great adventure across the 5 Stans!



Orient Voyages : Circuits en toute l’Asie Centrale

For any questions about products and rates:

[email protected]

+998 66 232 08 75

Website: www.tour-orient.com

>> Orient Voyages in the DESTIMAG Directory


The Massif Central: A Pilgrimage Between Gévaudan and the Cévennes Along Medieval Paths

Summary


  • Shirtless and Pantless


  • A Common and Amusing Bird


  • Charity Well-Ordered…


  • Ah, the Little White Wine!


  • Infinity, and Beyond

“Clack, clack, clack!”: my wooden clogs hammer the pavement. Half an hour ago, I wore a hoodie and sneakers. Now I am dressed as a pilgrim, head to toe: linen cap, braies, boots, and these odd wooden sandals, which in the Middle Ages were slipped over shoes to protect them from cold and damp… But whose sole function at the moment, as dawn barely breaks over Aumont-Aubrac, appears to be to disturb the quiet of the small fog-wreathed town.

Shirtless, Pantless

It is here, in Lozère, in the former province of Gévaudan, that my adventure begins: a 270-kilometer trek in the skin of Guillaume Coutel, a fictional yet historically plausible character I invented for the occasion. The aim of the experience is neither playful nor folkloric: by donning the XIIIth-century pilgrim’s garb, I seek to understand history through action. To feel also what it meant to walk, at a time when the main means of locomotion was… the feet! I have pushed the sense of detail to the extreme. Take my wool cloak. This medieval mantle varied in length according to social status: to the waist for the humble, to the ankles for the wealthy. For my character, a well-off cutler by trade, I chose a flattering mid-calf length. First surprise: in the deserts of the Aubrac, where I now roam above 1000m in altitude, I love moving about in a robe! A light wind blowing between my stockings makes me feel far warmer than in pants!