Since the end of February 2026, while bookings were well under way, tourism has entered a new zone of turbulence.
The United States decided to attack Iran with its Israeli allies, in a war that was supposed to last only three weeks. In a few days, the conflict will have been underway for six months, and no exit route seems to be emerging.
Fortunately, in distribution networks, the summer of 2026 proved less dire than the spring activity had suggested.
Regarding Selectour, the downturn has not been recovered. Since June, we have seen activity return to levels similar to 2025, but that does not allow us to compensate for the losses in the tourism sector.
Unfortunately, there is no sign of an end to the crisis; it remains latent. And orders for 2027 are not at their best—they are timid.
“Will bookings continually shift to last-minute, as they did during Covid? I don’t know; we will have to wait and see,” explains Laurent Abitbol, chairman of the management board of the brand with the seahorse.
Faced with the uncertainties of the health crisis, consumers had adopted a wait-and-see attitude, taking advantage of government-approved windows to travel.
The United States decided to attack Iran with its Israeli allies, in a war that was supposed to last only three weeks. In a few days, the conflict will have been underway for six months, and no exit route seems to be emerging.
Fortunately, in distribution networks, the summer of 2026 proved less dire than the spring activity had suggested.
Regarding Selectour, the downturn has not been recovered. Since June, we have seen activity return to levels similar to 2025, but that does not allow us to compensate for the losses in the tourism sector.
Unfortunately, there is no sign of an end to the crisis; it remains latent. And orders for 2027 are not at their best—they are timid.
“Will bookings continually shift to last-minute, as they did during Covid? I don’t know; we will have to wait and see,” explains Laurent Abitbol, chairman of the management board of the brand with the seahorse.
Faced with the uncertainties of the health crisis, consumers had adopted a wait-and-see attitude, taking advantage of government-approved windows to travel.
War in the Middle East: “2026 will be worse than 2025”
A few years later, the crisis has become multifaceted.
Not only have air routes in the Middle East been heavily disrupted, which in turn affected destinations in the region and in Asia, but concerns about kerosene shortages and rising prices added to the tension.
“I’m not worried about 2027 and the elections; my main concern remains the purchasing power of the French.
For this rentrée (back-to-school period), for now, we have no particular campaign planned. We must wait for this crisis to pass, for people to regain morale, because the desire to travel is there.
It’s a bit like Covid—there is fear, there is waiting; we need good news,” says Laurent Abitbol.
To read: our summer review of the distribution networks
Nevertheless, the message is not meant to be alarmist.
Rather than showing growth, as the order books from January and February 2026 suggested, activity will be slightly down, but not something to worry about.
Let us recall that the industry is coming off three historical years, with volumes often significantly higher than those of 2019.
“2026 will be worse than 2025, but not in a dramatic way. It will just be a little weaker compared to an exceptional year. Selectour is doing well.
These first three months at the start of the conflict hurt us. If this war had not occurred, growth would have continued in the post-Covid dynamic“, tempers the executive.
Unsurprisingly, the United States are clearly down. Tunisia also did not replicate the strong summer of 2025, hampered by power and water outages due to extreme heat.
Otherwise, sun destinations remain at the top of summer sales.
Not only have air routes in the Middle East been heavily disrupted, which in turn affected destinations in the region and in Asia, but concerns about kerosene shortages and rising prices added to the tension.
“I’m not worried about 2027 and the elections; my main concern remains the purchasing power of the French.
For this rentrée (back-to-school period), for now, we have no particular campaign planned. We must wait for this crisis to pass, for people to regain morale, because the desire to travel is there.
It’s a bit like Covid—there is fear, there is waiting; we need good news,” says Laurent Abitbol.
To read: our summer review of the distribution networks
Nevertheless, the message is not meant to be alarmist.
Rather than showing growth, as the order books from January and February 2026 suggested, activity will be slightly down, but not something to worry about.
Let us recall that the industry is coming off three historical years, with volumes often significantly higher than those of 2019.
“2026 will be worse than 2025, but not in a dramatic way. It will just be a little weaker compared to an exceptional year. Selectour is doing well.
These first three months at the start of the conflict hurt us. If this war had not occurred, growth would have continued in the post-Covid dynamic“, tempers the executive.
Unsurprisingly, the United States are clearly down. Tunisia also did not replicate the strong summer of 2025, hampered by power and water outages due to extreme heat.
Otherwise, sun destinations remain at the top of summer sales.
Lowering margins “is not a good calculation”
So there is nothing to worry about, even if the various signals, at international and national levels, somewhat stiffen decision-making.
This war with no end, which depends on the whims of Donald Trump, is added to the French economic situation.
The annual budget drama begins, with the prospect of pension indexation being linked to inflation, as desired by the Minister of Economy and Finance, Roland Lescure.
The government has promised “a lot of rigor” and shared efforts, so not enough to restart consumption.
“We have no control over the mood of the French. You know, holidays depend entirely on the mood of society.
Fortunately, airfares have not risen much. To fill the planes, the surcharges did not cover the surge in kerosene.
And I do not think prices will skyrocket in the future to allow airlines to rebuild their margins. Competition is too intense to witness tariffs rising.
The only movements we are likely to see in the future involve Emirates and Qatar Airways. To regain market share, they will lower their prices, and that will last a few months“, imagines the Lyon-based chief.
If carriers did not contribute to the inflation plaguing France, tourism players have even fought to offer as many discounts as possible.
Facing inventories that were not decreasing quickly enough, tour operators engaged in a fierce promotion war. Everyone thus rebuilt cash flow, but at what price?
This war with no end, which depends on the whims of Donald Trump, is added to the French economic situation.
The annual budget drama begins, with the prospect of pension indexation being linked to inflation, as desired by the Minister of Economy and Finance, Roland Lescure.
The government has promised “a lot of rigor” and shared efforts, so not enough to restart consumption.
“We have no control over the mood of the French. You know, holidays depend entirely on the mood of society.
Fortunately, airfares have not risen much. To fill the planes, the surcharges did not cover the surge in kerosene.
And I do not think prices will skyrocket in the future to allow airlines to rebuild their margins. Competition is too intense to witness tariffs rising.
The only movements we are likely to see in the future involve Emirates and Qatar Airways. To regain market share, they will lower their prices, and that will last a few months“, imagines the Lyon-based chief.
If carriers did not contribute to the inflation plaguing France, tourism players have even fought to offer as many discounts as possible.
Facing inventories that were not decreasing quickly enough, tour operators engaged in a fierce promotion war. Everyone thus rebuilt cash flow, but at what price?
Electronic invoicing: “a fairly positive reform”
“Lowering margins was not a wise choice.
Better to do less, but with fair pricing, than to try to sustain volumes or improve by squeezing profitability. That isn’t a good calculation“, chafes Laurent Abitbol.
If tourism is a little under the weather, two market segments are doing rather well.
Business travel is growing for Selectour, as are the groups, with little explanation for the latter activity.
And while this rentrée unfolds in a somewhat gloomy context, files pile up on the desks of executives, starting with electronic invoicing.
To read: Electronic invoicing: “France does not have the most complex legislation”
It will come into effect within a week, on September 1. According to the 7th edition of the Generix barometer, 48.5% of companies had not yet launched the project.
And this is felt in the sector.
“On electronic invoicing, not everyone is ready, far from it. Then again, this mainly concerns business travel and government accounts. There is no urgency; in fact, many policymakers are calling for suspension due to hacking incidents.
I think state services will not be harsh; they will allow everyone time to comply. You know, for two years I’ve had two people working on this full time.
So yes, it is heavy in the short term, especially right now, but I think it will be a fairly positive reform because it will simplify accounting.
It’s a bit like the income tax withholding at source.” concludes Laurent Abitbol.
Better to do less, but with fair pricing, than to try to sustain volumes or improve by squeezing profitability. That isn’t a good calculation“, chafes Laurent Abitbol.
If tourism is a little under the weather, two market segments are doing rather well.
Business travel is growing for Selectour, as are the groups, with little explanation for the latter activity.
And while this rentrée unfolds in a somewhat gloomy context, files pile up on the desks of executives, starting with electronic invoicing.
To read: Electronic invoicing: “France does not have the most complex legislation”
It will come into effect within a week, on September 1. According to the 7th edition of the Generix barometer, 48.5% of companies had not yet launched the project.
And this is felt in the sector.
“On electronic invoicing, not everyone is ready, far from it. Then again, this mainly concerns business travel and government accounts. There is no urgency; in fact, many policymakers are calling for suspension due to hacking incidents.
I think state services will not be harsh; they will allow everyone time to comply. You know, for two years I’ve had two people working on this full time.
So yes, it is heavy in the short term, especially right now, but I think it will be a fairly positive reform because it will simplify accounting.
It’s a bit like the income tax withholding at source.” concludes Laurent Abitbol.
Published by Romain Pommier Journalist – TourMaG.com See all articles by Romain Pommier
Add TourMaG to your Google News feed 
