Will the Coastline Survive Climate Disruptions?


Le littoral va-t-il survivre aux désordres climatiques ? - Photo JS

CroisiEurope


What made our country a pioneer in the legal field concerning coastal zones. Pioneer, certainly, but exemplary? Perhaps not! One more time, we pay the price of years of carefree neglect. Worse still! Those times when we knew better but where the economy took precedence!

People talk a lot about the mountains and their troubled future while the coast, the most beautiful tourist jewel of the Hexagon and many other destinations, is rarely mentioned. Yet, one could live without the mountains in winter but much less so without the sea and its coastlines which continue to be the vacationers’ favorite summer destination… but which are becoming increasingly vulnerable. What is happening? And what happened?

In fact, although celebrated, the anniversary of the Coastal Law is no longer enough. Adopted on January 7, 1986, unanimously, the law aimed to regulate urbanization of attractive yet vulnerable territories such as coastal areas, and rests and still rests on the fight against the proliferation of new constructions, concreting, and soil artificialization. All within a 100-meter wide strip from the shore.

Pertinent and courageous, this legislation arrived, it seems, a little late. It arrived not only after privileged people settled along the seafront with exceptional panoramas, but also and above all at the end of the major coast development missions.

Launched by a state keen to develop the territory by promoting tourism and economic development, the Racine mission for example began in June 1963 with the aim of bringing to life in Languedoc Roussillon no fewer than seven seaside towns that would become among the most popular in Europe.

Within twenty years, Gruissan and Port Leucate in Aude, Port Camargue in Gard, La Grande-Motte and Cap d’Agde in Hérault, Port Barcarès and Saint-Cyprien in Pyrénées-Orientales were born.

On the Atlantic coast: the same strategy. The Interministerial Mission for the Development of the Atlantic Coast (MIACA) was tasked with defining the tourist development of the Atlantic littoral. In two decades, from 1967 to 1988, newcomers like Hourtin, Seignosse, Carcan Maubuisson … became the locomotives of a booming seaside tourism and a housing demand just as prolific.

Globally, according to INSEE, housing in metropolitan France rose from 19 million in 1970 to 36.6 million in 2019. This gives an idea of the scale of the projects and the needs of a growing population that continues to drive the coastal housing stock, which also increased by 45% over the period 1990-2019!



Forty years on, what assessment?

Certes, le littoral avait besoin d’être aménagé de façon méthodique, selon des plans ambitieux mais raisonnés, au contraire de ce que subissaient au même moment les côtes espagnoles de la Costa Brava à la Costa del Sol ou les Côtes italiennes de l’Adriatique et déjà celles de Tunisie…

Autant de littoraux qui rêvaient de ce nouvel or bleu capable d’améliorer leur cadre de vie, ouvrir leur pays, accumuler des recettes et générer des centaines de milliers d’emplois de taille à sortir de la pauvreté une partie de la population.

Quant aux ports de plaisance jusque-là plutôt rares, they also began to proliferate along our shores to develop a democratization and densification of a boating activity: nautical tourism.

A ce jour, environ 500 ports ont été construits dans notre pays avec les logements adaptés, often marinas modeled on the American pattern and all the necessary public spaces to host an increasingly motorized public, demanding parking and other commercial spaces.


A lack of foresight

Where is the problem? In fact, France like others, blinded by the mirage of a society in full transition, did not anticipate the changes that some were already warning about.

Wasn’t René Dumont a candidate in the 1974 presidential election under the ecological banner?

A major milestone in the political discourse of the time and the first battles against the excesses of coastal urbanization elsewhere, which also manifested itself through a significant initiative: the creation of the Conservatoire du Littoral in 1975.

A national public administrative body whose mission is to pursue a land policy to safeguard the coastal space, to respect natural sites, and to maintain ecological balance….

It continues today its work of acquisition and preservation, which must be acknowledged as having saved many coastal areas from bulldozers, and you can consult it on the excellent site of the conservatory.


A progressive growth of the housing stock between 1990 and 2020

The metropolitan coastline housing stock comprises 4.7 million dwellings, of which 66% are primary residences, 28% secondary residences, and 6% vacant homes.

Brought down to municipal area, the density of housing along the coast is 3.2 times higher than the metropolitan average (206 dwellings per km2 versus 64 dwellings per km2 for the country as a whole).

The Mediterranean coast concentrates the largest number of dwellings (2.3 million), followed by the North Atlantic–English Channel coast (1.2 million), the East Channel–North Sea (0.7 million) and the South Atlantic (0.5 million).

Sources Data Lab. Ministère de la transition écologique


The coast in a few figures



Josette Sicsic - DR

Journalist, consultant, speaker, Josette Sicsic has been observing for more than 25 years the shifts in the world to analyze their consequences for the tourism sector.

After developing for more than 20 years the Touriscopie journal, she remains at the heart of current affairs where she decodes the present to forecast the future. On the site www.tourmag.com, in the Futuroscopie section, she publishes several times a week forward-looking and analytical articles.

Contact: 06 14 47 99 04

Email: [email protected]

Tourism in the Face of Climate Change: Adapt or Endure? [ABO]


Tourisme : des destinations best sellers seront invivables... - crédit photo : visuel généré à l'aide de l'IA

CroisiEurope


In 2014, to raise awareness about climate change, TF1 attempted a projection exercise during a weather bulletin.

We are August 17, 2050. France is smothered under an oppressive sun, barely veiled.

“Tomorrow morning, temperatures will already be very high, notably in Paris, Perpignan or Nice, with 26 degrees. In the afternoon, we will reach or exceed 40°C: 41 in Strasbourg, 40 in the capital, 42 in Lyon and up to 43 degrees forecast in Nîmes,” announced Evelyne Dhéliat, during a weather bulletin aired after the evening news.

Science fiction? Not at all. Just twelve years earlier, one could see that there was no need to project so far. These temperatures, which used to belong to forecasting, have become reality, even before summer has begun.

As economist Maxime Combes notes, Evelyne Dhéliat made three errors in her forecasts: no, Brittany and the Cotentin will not be spared; no, you won’t have to wait until August to burn on the spot; and no, you shouldn’t wait until 2050 either.

Indeed, by the end of 2026, France is already beating records one after another. It had already reached 37.8 °C at La Couronne in Charente, 37.4 °C in Perpignan and 37.6 °C in Narbonne.

While travel agencies struggle, France burns. And some still prefer to avert their eyes, when they don’t choose to laugh.



Tourism: Best-Selling Destinations Will Become Unlivable…

On his side, Daniel Riolo, a journalist whose humor is increasingly lacking, urged the French to stop “whining“, while asserting “it’s hot, enough already!

A few hours later, in a classroom in Soustons, in the Landes, the thermometer surged and reached 53 degrees.

We are at the end of May, the students are suffocating, but all it will take is to slip on a T-shirt and open the windows. Seriously? Two very bad pieces of advice in such a situation.

Let us be clear: our industry cannot avoid a reflection on its future, even as crises follow one another, whether for travel agencies or for institutional actors.

To read: Greenhouse gas emissions: tourism must (quickly) act or die?

Because if we do nothing, an entire swath of destinations marketed by distribution, but also countries heavily dependent on tourism, will become unvisitable during the summer period.

If we do nothing, the South and the Mediterranean basin will be regions comparable to the desert of Africa. In short, this region will no longer be attractive for summer vacations. The sand will be so hot that no one will be able to walk there.

Tourists will not want to stay in their hotel room all day, when there are other places to go out.

If we do nothing, I am not optimistic for this region
“, explained a few years ago Wouter Vanneuville, climate adaptation expert at the European Environment Agency.

The clock is ticking. And even if adaptation in Europe is very costly, doing nothing will cost more, economically and in human terms.


… infrastructures will become obsolete

This episode of historical precocity reminds us that destinations are not the only things that are not adapted: our infrastructures are not in a better position.

Last week, SNCF had no choice but to cancel trains.

The carrier explained that this decision was necessary due to the risk of air conditioning failures, because equipment is too old and not robust enough to withstand extreme temperatures.

At the last EDV conference, Jean Castex, the former prime minister, underscored the urgency of the situation.

I often say that climate-skeptics would be stunned by the evolution observed in just 15 years if they visited the SNCF.

This impact is now considerable. The consequences are not limited to more pronounced climatic phenomena.



We are particularly witnessing a rise in forest fires. Yet, our lines traverse numerous wooded areas, which can have a very significant impact on rail traffic.

There is also a disruption of wildlife and a sharp increase in trees falling onto the network. In ten years, they have multiplied by fourteen“, confided the CEO of SNCF.

The carrier also keeps a close watch on problems with catenaries, power supply, or the overheating of rails. When it is 37 °C, the temperature of the rail can reach 55 °C. At that level, it can warp.

In 2025 already, the new Nantes station had to be closed due to the heat. It has again made headlines last week.

Air travel will not be spared either.


Tourism is not the climate’s arch-enemy, but it must question itself!

In 2017, the city of Phoenix, United States, turned into a true furnace. The thermometer exceeded 50 degrees.

The hotter the air, the less dense it is. Therefore, one must reach a higher takeoff speed. The length of the runway can be a determining factor in achieving that speed. In Phoenix, with this heat wave, air density made takeoffs impossible“, explained Clément Mallet, project manager for mobility and adaptation at Carbone 4, in a previous article.

Global warming will also intensify turbulence.

According to a study by researchers at the University of Reading, these phenomena are becoming more frequent due to warmer air. Today, on a Paris–New York flight, passengers experience an average of 10 minutes of turbulence.

By 2050, that will be more like 20 to 30 minutes.

Here are as many examples as there are to show that our industry is not ready to face this phenomenon that we, humanity, have created. And we have not even spoken about rising sea levels or the dwindling of snow in the mountains… nor about the regulatory risk that could be imposed on companies…

Good news, we still have our fate in our own hands.

And contrary to what a recently posted LinkedIn message by a captain suggested, it is clear that taxing French aviation will not change everything. But it is not either by shifting blame onto others or by minimizing one’s own impact on global warming that we will advance the debate.

With such reasoning, we could have allowed people to keep smoking in restaurants, bars or cafes. After all, one cigarette cannot hurt anyone. Likewise, it would be easier to avoid picking up after Fido’s poop or to refrain from throwing a bottle in the trash…

Of course, it is the sum of individual behaviors that is at stake. Only a broad, global awareness will keep our old Earth breathable.

So no, we should not stop traveling, nor flying. But we must all, collectively, adopt a reasoned behavior, so that this industry remains the powerful lever of emancipation and inclusion, whether in 2050 or beyond.