TUI Confirms 2026 Targets as Geopolitical Uncertainty Remains


TUI confirme ses objectifs 2026 malgré un environnement géopolitique toujours incertain - Depositphotos.com @monticello

MSC Croisières


TUI stays on course.

Despite an environment marked by geopolitical tensions, economic slowdown across several European markets and greater consumer caution, the travel group confirms its financial outlook for the 2026 financial year.

At the end of the third quarter, covering the period from April to June 2026, TUI reports an underlying EBIT of €235 million, compared with €321 million a year earlier. The result was notably affected by €20 million due to the direct consequences of the war in Iran on the cruise activity.

For the nine months of the year, the underlying EBIT reached €123 million, vs €165 million in the same period in 2025.

According to the group, the effects of the war in Iran and the hurricane in Jamaica weighed on the result by €81 million. Excluding these exceptional items, TUI believes its performance would have surpassed that of the previous year.


Late Reservations

Dans ce contexte, le groupe constate surtout une évolution des comportements d’achat. Les consommateurs continuent de voyager, mais prennent leurs décisions plus tardivement.

Après plusieurs semaines marquées par la prudence, TUI observe un redressement des réservations. Sur les quatre dernières semaines, les revenus réservés ont progressé de 7%, réduisant le retard enregistré depuis le début de la saison estivale. Le chiffre d’affaires réservé pour l’été 2026 reste toutefois inférieur de 6% à celui de l’année précédente.

Les destinations court et moyen-courrier restent les plus demandées, notamment la Grèce et l’Espagne, Baléares et Canaries comprises. La demande pour les destinations de Méditerranée orientale montre également des signes de reprise ces dernières semaines.

Pour Sebastian Ebel, directeur général de TUI, cette évolution confirme la résilience de la demande touristique. “Le voyage reste très important dans la vie des gens“, souligne-t-il, tout en constatant que le calendrier des décisions d’achat s’est déplacé vers des réservations plus proches du départ.


Hotels and Cruises Hold Up

L’activité Holiday Experiences, qui regroupe notamment les hôtels, les croisières et TUI Musement, continue de soutenir les performances du groupe. Elle a généré un EBIT sous-jacent de 278 millions d’euros au troisième trimestre, contre 294 millions un an auparavant.

Dans l’hôtellerie, TUI Hotels & Resorts affiche un EBIT de 121 millions d’euros au troisième trimestre. Le nombre de nuitées disponibles progresse légèrement de 1%, à 11,3 millions, tandis que le taux d’occupation recule de cinq points, à 77%. Le groupe explique cette évolution notamment par la montée en puissance de nouveaux établissements et par une demande moins soutenue en Méditerranée orientale, au Mexique et dans les Caraïbes. Le tarif moyen journalier reste, lui, stable à 88 euros.

Le segment croisières continue également d’afficher de solides performances opérationnelles. Son EBIT sous-jacent atteint 133 millions d’euros au troisième trimestre, contre 143 millions un an plus tôt. Le recul est entièrement lié à l’impact exceptionnel de 20 millions d’euros de la guerre en Iran.

Pour des raisons de sécurité, les navires Mein Schiff 4 et Mein Schiff 5 étaient restés dans des ports de la région du Golfe entre mars et la mi-mai 2026. Les itinéraires ont ensuite pu reprendre. Hors cet impact, l’EBIT du segment aurait progressé de 10 millions d’euros.

La demande reste par ailleurs soutenue sur les marchés allemand et britannique. Les tarifs moyens des croisières ont progressé de 4%, à 252 euros, tandis que le taux de remplissage, hors impact de la guerre en Iran, s’est amélioré d’un point pour atteindre 99%.


TUI Musement Continues Its Progress

Autre activité en croissance, TUI Musement enregistre une hausse de 10,8% de son EBIT sous-jacent au troisième trimestre, à 23 millions d’euros. Le groupe attribue cette progression notamment à l’amélioration de son activité B2B et aux gains d’efficacité opérationnelle.

Sur neuf mois, l’EBIT sous-jacent de TUI Musement progresse de 171%, à 17,3 millions d’euros, contre 6,4 millions d’euros un an auparavant. Le nombre d’expériences vendues reste quasiment stable, à 2,9 millions, tandis que les transferts diminuent de 10%, à 7,9 millions, dans un contexte de demande affectée par les incertitudes géopolitiques.

À l’inverse, l’activité Markets + Airline, qui regroupe les tour-opérateurs, les ventes et TUI Airline, reste sous pression. Son EBIT sous-jacent ressort à -16 millions d’euros au troisième trimestre, contre +50 millions un an plus tôt. Le groupe évoque une demande plus faible, une pression accrue sur les prix, la hausse des coûts du carburant et des capacités supplémentaires sur le marché.


France Still in the Red

Dans le détail régional, les trois principales zones commerciales de TUI restent confrontées à un environnement difficile.

La région centrale, qui comprend notamment l’Allemagne, l’Autriche, la Suisse et la Pologne, affiche un EBIT sous-jacent de -10 millions d’euros au troisième trimestre, contre +25 millions un an auparavant. La région Nord, qui regroupe le Royaume-Uni, l’Irlande et les pays nordiques, ressort à +10 millions d’euros, contre +45 millions.

La région Ouest, qui comprend les Pays-Bas, la Belgique et la France, enregistre pour sa part un EBIT sous-jacent de -16 millions d’euros, contre -21 millions un an auparavant. Malgré cette perte, le résultat s’améliore donc légèrement sur un an.


New Trends and Geopolitical Conflicts: European Tourism Holds Strong


Le tourisme européen résiste face aux conflits géopolitique et aux nouvelles priorités des voyageurs, Depositphotos.com

CroisiEurope


Despite a complex economic and geopolitical backdrop, the desire to travel remains steadfast in Europe.

On Thursday, July 9, 2026, the European Travel Commission (ETC) published its indicators for the second quarter of 2026. The assessment reveals solid growth: across the continent, international tourist arrivals show a rise of 5.0 % compared with the same period in 2025, while hotel overnight stays increase by 4.8 %.

This performance nevertheless occurs in a climate of waning consumer confidence and increased pressure on purchasing power.

If growth remains overall positive, holidaymakers’ behaviors are shifting toward more selective choices. Budget considerations, safety, geographic proximity and flexibility are now the decisive factors in choosing stays.


Strong Uptick in Northern Europe and Mediterranean Disparities

The regional results illustrate a healthy overall momentum, even if about one in five destinations manages to reach double-digit growth.

Northern Europe outperforms the rest of the continent, with arrivals up by 10.0 % and overnight stays up by 8.4 %. Meanwhile, Central and Eastern Europe, buoyed by the appeal of new experiences and competitive prices, records a 5.2 % rise in arrivals and a 6.9 % increase in nights spent.

The Mediterranean basin remains a major driver in absolute volume, although the situation there is more uneven. If Greece, with a 38.3 % rise in arrivals, and Italy, up 21.1 %, show excellent performances, Turkey and Cyprus experience a clear slowdown, recording declines of 2.1 % and 17.9 % respectively due to their perceived geographic proximity to the Middle East conflict.

This instability has also been felt in European air traffic: after a very strong first quarter with 7.0 % growth, the pace fell sharply to 1.0 % in April due to changes in air corridors.


A Summer Budget Safeguarded but More Closely Monitored

Spending data indicate an average expenditure per visitor often higher than last year. In Greece, for example, tourism receipts jumped by 64.3 %, far outpacing the rise in physical flows. In Italy, the trend reverses with expenditures rising more modestly (+4.3 %) despite a substantial increase in traveler volumes.

For summer 2026, leisure travel remains a top priority: Europeans plan to devote 13.0 % of their total consumption budget to it, a figure well above the global average set at 8.5 %. Non-European sending markets follow the same trend, increasing from 7.5 % in 2025 to 7.7 % this year.

Nevertheless, price sensitivity accelerates as major departures approach. Nearly 48 % of professionals surveyed in the Travel Industry Monitor say financial accessibility has become the key issue of the quarter, up from 32 % at the start of the year. The southern European destinations benefit from this, capturing 61 % of stay intentions between June and November.

Finally, there is a marked shift toward the off-season. September bookings are rising strongly across Europe, as travelers increasingly seek to avoid extreme heat waves and overtourism.

At the same time, while interest in sustainable tourism grows in online searches, only 41 % of consumers say they are ready to concretely modify their transport or stay habits for environmental reasons.

AtlasProtect.io Launches Geopolitical and Legal Monitoring Platform for Travel Agencies


AtlasProtect.io lance une plateforme de veille géopolitique et juridique pour les voyagistes - Photo AtlasProtect.io

CroisiEurope


In an international context marked by growing instability, geopolitical crises, rapid regulatory changes, and climate-related uncertainties, Chloé Rezlan, co-founder of the law firm Adeona Avocat·e·s, launched AtlasProtect.io in collaboration with Stanislas Lucien: a platform presented as the first geopolitics SaaS solution specifically designed for travel operators.



“In general, tourism law often acts reactively, only after a crisis has occurred. AtlasProtect.io’s ambition is precisely to reverse this logic by providing anticipatory tools.



Our mission is to give back control to travel professionals by turning uncertainty into decision intelligence. We do not sell data; we provide the clarity and confidence needed to plan, sell, and operate with complete peace of mind,”
explains Chloé Rezlan.

AtlasProtect.io thus aims to centralize and automate advanced legal, analytical, and security capabilities.


The platform targets a wide range of players

The platform targets a broad spectrum of actors: travel agencies, tour operators, Travel Management Companies (TMCs) and event organisers (MICE).

The solution is structured around a command center, named Atlas Live, which offers a real-time view of the situation across 195 countries.

To do this, the solution relies on more than 10,000 sources, “monitored 24/7”.

Concretely, the solution tracks all kinds of events: airport closures, social movements or natural disasters, and enables visualization of risk zones at a fine scale (neighborhoods, ongoing protests) while integrating entry formalities constraints or health protocols.

Everything is done to ensure the data is as reliable as possible“, insists Stanislas Lucien.


Eight modules to anticipate crises and a legal AI assistant


La plateforme intègre également un module dédié aux formalités d’entrée, avec des informations actualisées sur les exigences de visas, passeports, conditions sanitaires ou encore réglementations douanières selon les destinations et les nationalités des voyageurs. - Photo AtlasProtect.io

AtlasProtect.io is thus organized into eight modules.

Alongside the Global Tourism Risk Index, which allows scoring 195 countries based on dozens of criteria (security, political stability, health, climate…), users will notably access geopolitical monitoring and legal watch.

The platform also integrates a module dedicated to entry formalities, with up-to-date information on visa and passport requirements, health conditions, and customs regulations depending on destinations and travelers’ nationalities.

Another facet is devoted to tracking transport disruptions. The solution aggregates data on delays, cancellations or incidents affecting airlines, but also some rail or maritime networks.

Professionals can also benefit from an AI assistant named Claire, designed to answer the most frequent questions, especially regarding cancellations, exceptional circumstances, or information and advisory obligations. “This AI agent was created from my legal analyses and interpretation of various jurisprudences,” explains Chloé Rezlan, who ensures the reliability of her tool.

A module also enables climate risk analysis, with monitoring of extreme weather events and certain phenomena likely to impact tourism operations.

Alongside these tools, contract analysis and a review of the terms and conditions are also offered to identify risky clauses, liability gaps, or potential regulatory non-compliances.


The platform also offers traveler geolocation features through a dedicated mobile app, in a “duty of care” framework, allowing operators to track travelers who have activated the service and to send real-time alerts if an event occurs nearby.

This initiative comes amid growing regulatory pressure on travel distributors and producers, as several recent court decisions have underscored strengthened obligations to inform, advise, and remain vigilant for professionals in the sector.

An introductory price of 199 euros excluding VAT per month, with no long-term commitment.

Paris Air Forum 2026: An Edition Defined by Industrial and Geopolitical Shifts


Paris Air Forum réunira le 12 juin à la Maison de la Mutualité plus de 1 000 acteurs de l’aéronautique - Photo : Paris Air Forum

CroisiEurope


À un peu plus d’une semaine de son ouverture, Paris Air Forum s’apprête à réunir, le vendredi 12 juin à la Maison de la Mutualité, l’ensemble des grands acteurs de l’aéronautique, du spatial et de la défense européens.

Plus de 1 000 visiteurs et 120 intervenants sont attendus pour cette nouvelle édition, organisée dans un contexte géopolitique et industriel marqué par l’accélération des transitions technologiques et la recherche de souveraineté stratégique.

Dans un environnement où la souveraineté technologique s’impose comme une priorité, l’édition 2026 du Paris Air Forum mettra en lumière les grandes transformations à l’œuvre dans les filières aéronautiques, spatiales et de défense.

Intelligence artificielle, transition énergétique, autonomie stratégique : autant de thématiques abordés par les industriels, décideurs publics et experts internationaux.


A Strategic Gathering at the Heart of Sector Changes

Parmi les temps forts annoncés figurent notamment :

les enjeux de l’IA dans la préparation des armées de l’air du futur

la souveraineté à l’épreuve du chaos mondial

une rencontre entre Guillaume Faury et Arthur Mensch

la réindustrialisation européenne et son rôle stratégique

la capacité des industries à rester à la pointe à l’ère du numérique

la montée en cadence des fournisseurs face aux besoins croissants

ou encore l’avenir des programmes de défense après 2027


Conferences, business and innovation on the program

Le Paris Air Forum s’articulera autour de quatre salles de conférences, où leaders industriels et experts croiseront leurs analyses pour décrypter les grandes tendances du secteur.

En parallèle, l’événement proposera un dispositif complet dédié aux échanges professionnels : rendez-vous d’affaires via la plateforme Vimeet, permettant de planifier des rencontres qualifiées en amont, networking, avec des espaces dédiés pour favoriser les échanges tout au long de la journée et espace exposants, consacré aux innovations industrielles et aux solutions concrètes des acteurs du secteur.

L’objectif est de faciliter les connexions entre décideurs, industriels et innovateurs afin de renforcer les coopérations dans un contexte de forte transformation des filières.

Au-delà des innovations technologiques, cette édition 2026 interrogera les grandes équations stratégiques du moment : l’avenir de la réglementation aérienne, la compétitivité européenne face aux puissances mondiales, ou encore la place de l’Europe dans la course spatiale.

La question de la capacité du continent à rester une “ligne de champions” dans le spatial sera notamment au cœur des échanges, dans un contexte de concurrence internationale accrue.


Amelia Brille Publié par Amelia Brille Rédactrice TourMaG.com
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Tourism in Geopolitical Turbulence: Industry Under Pressure


Tourisme mondial 2026 : une croissance résiliente malgré les turbulences géopolitiques, despositphotos.com

Top of Travel


Global tourism showed resilience in the first quarter of 2026, with 307 million travelers traveling abroad, or 6 million more than the same period in 2025, up 2%, according to the latest UNWTO barometer.

If January and February were marked by solid demand, rising by 2.5%, March saw a clear slowdown, up only 0.4%, directly linked to geopolitical tensions.

Europe and Africa emerge as the engines of this growth.

Europe, the world’s leading destination, hosted more than 130 million visitors, a 4% increase, benefiting in part from a shift in flows toward Southern Europe, the Mediterranean, the North and the East.


Tourism: The Middle East stalls

Africa also climbs by 4%, supported by a striking 18% jump in North Africa in March.

Asia and the Americas, by contrast, show more restrained momentum. The Asia-Pacific region posts an overall 3% growth, restrained by a 27% drop in South Asia due to air-transport disruptions, although Oceania, at +9%, and Northeast Asia, at +5%, register solid performances.

The Americas register a moderate 2% uptick, masking wide disparities between the dynamism of Central America at +18% and the downturn in South America at -1%.

To read: Tourism: after a difficult month of May, operators turn to the government!

Conversely, the Middle East is in a slump. The region is bearing the full force of the conflict, with a 14% drop in arrivals in the first quarter and hotel occupancy collapsing from 75% in January to 48% in March. Only Egypt stands out, with a pronounced 16% rise.

The Middle East conflict is profoundly altering the travel economy well beyond its geographical area.

Shaikha Al Nuwais, Secretary-General of UNWTO, notes that disruptions to air links, coupled with maritime instability in the Strait of Hormuz, are driving up the price of oil and kerosene.

This situation leads to a mechanical rise in airfares and a reduction in transport capacity.


Tourism: Transport costs darken the outlook

The Middle East conflict deeply reshapes the travel economy beyond its regional borders.

Shaikha Al Nuwais, Secretary-General of UNWTO, notes that disruptions to air links, coupled with maritime instability in the Strait of Hormuz, trigger a surge in the price of oil and kerosene.

This situation causes a mechanical increase in airfares and a reduction in transport capacity.

According to IATA, air traffic in the Middle East contracted by 61% in March, although global air traffic overall maintained a 4% growth for the quarter, thanks to the shift of flows toward European, Asian and African airlines.

In the face of these inflationary pressures and prevailing uncertainty, industry professionals display more measured optimism for the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere.

The UNWTO Confidence Index stands at 105 for May to August, down from 117 at the start of the year. Nearly two-thirds of experts believe that the conflict negatively affects demand.



These economic constraints push travelers to adjust their behavior: the search for value for money becomes paramount and demand tends to shift toward nearby destinations.

Despite this climate of uncertainty, which is expected to trim global growth by 1 to 2 percentage points versus initial forecasts, significant opportunities loom, notably for Canada, the United States, and Mexico, which are preparing to host the FIFA World Cup.

Tourism Amid Geopolitical Tensions: Health of Industry Leaders and Employees at Stake


Le Tourisme face aux tensions géopolitiques : Cathy Bou, fondatrice et dirigeante d’AGAPÈ s’exprime sur le sujet © nidimages / Nicolas Demare

Top of Travel


Fresh from the COVID-19 pandemic, the sector is once again put to the test. Gulf monarchies, once hailed as the safest tourist destinations in the world, have in a single day become among the riskiest places.

Caught in a trap, thousands of holidaymakers turn to their travel agencies. Between emergency repatriations, destination changes and refund requests, travel agents and tour-operator teams, the magicians of our holidays, must face immense psychological pressures, and their mental health is undoubtedly affected. A silent deterioration of working conditions for these agents takes hold, exacerbated by the psychological precarity that the sector’s probable collapse could entail, with massive layoffs looming.

The closing of airspaces, navigational difficulties at sea, skyrocketing oil prices and surging insurance premiums have finally redrawn the map of zones accessible to tourists with fewer risks. “Dubai used to account for 70% of my annual turnover. Overnight everything collapsed. Today I spend two-thirds of my time reassuring clients who are blocked or panicked, while the remaining third is spent undoing what I had spent months building. Reprogramming isn’t even on the agenda given the great uncertainties about the end of this conflict in the Middle East. The hardest part for us travel agents is imagining our professional future. It’s truly depressing.” Sabrina, a staff member, portfolio manager for Maghreb and the Middle East at a French tour operator, shares with us.


Industry professionals on the brink of burnout

“We have shifted from dream merchants to firefighters. I used to sell dreams, dream destinations, voyages that changed lives. Now I am on the verge of becoming a psychologist, not knowing what tomorrow holds – how can we continue to sell when we are the ones on the edge of a nervous breakdown?” confides Sandrine, an employee at the same company. In this climate of emotional precarity and operational survival, how can a process aimed at achieving certifications or labels such as Travelife-ISO20121 – 26000-ATR or any other framework be steered?

What challenges lie ahead for the CSR approach, and what levers can the CSR consultant pull?


Challenge 1: Priorities

When a crisis hits in the middle of a certification-support process, the CSR consultant faces the paradox of priorities: urgency versus the standard.

Sabrina has just spent the day coordinating the evacuation of 200 tourists stuck in Abu Dhabi without success. The airport and the region’s airspace are closed. Sandrine has spent the last half hour dealing with the anger of a young married couple whose honeymoon in Dubai has just been cancelled. The two employees are in an extremely tense emotional state. At the same moment, the CSR consultant accompanying their company toward renewing its certification enters the office. The look she exchanges with the two employees convinces her that this is not the right moment to discuss standards*.

* The names have been altered to avoid identifying the individuals concerned


Challenge 2: Embody CSR, not endure it

For Agapè, the CSR consultant’s role in such a context is to show empathy, to listen to the management and to the employees, and not to appear as a zealot defender of the standard, adding an extra workload. The consultant has a moral obligation to immerse themselves in the palpable tensions in order to reshape the certification process agenda, reorganize the schedule, and demonstrate that it is ultimately a pedagogy, a guidance toward practices that preserve human beings first, then the planet.


Challenge 3: Social effectiveness

The social dimension is the central pillar of any corporate social responsibility approach, says Cathy Bou, founder and CEO of AGAPÈ.

Lately, we are encountering many cases of psychological pressure and decline in the quality of life and working conditions (QVCT). Our own situation could deteriorate as we encounter sensitive scenarios. Yet, our reading of the frameworks requires us to prioritize the protagonists, to consider sustainability in its entirety (Social, Economic, Environmental). It is certainly common for environmental concerns to take precedence.

The challenge for the consultant in this anxiety-filled climate for company leaders and their employees is to be a buffer between all parties. To succeed in their mission, the consultant must ensure that the management’s order of priorities is reversed. “They must convince the leadership to place health and safety — for themselves, their employees, collaborators and other providers — at the top of the CSR priority stack.” No certification would be credible if it is built on social distress and the collapse of teams. In such a case, the initiative would be nothing more than a “social-washing”.

When the initiative lacks humanity, when the consultant and the management ignore distress, the CSR standard will inevitably be perceived as cynicism by stakeholders, a new checkbox for the management. “We are asked to be eco-responsible certified, to think about carbon footprints or waste management while there are sickness absences, burnouts, fatal accidents during missions — it’s the height of cynicism.”


Contact Agapè CSR to initiate your process